Energy Challenges and Transitions; A fuzzy set-theoretic approach in evaluating factors affecting Renewable Energy Policy Adoption in West Africa.
Abstract
Even though several studies have investigated energy transitions in recent years, they have been predominantly developed and applied in industrialized countries. It is, therefore, critical in the face of industrialization aims touted by the ECOWAS States to examine the applicability of transition theories, as they are currently formulated in Africa. Hence, this study examines conditions and configuration of the same that explain variation in the adoption of renewable energy amongst the West African States based on a fuzzy set comparative analysis (fs/QCA) through the lenses of multi-level socio-technical perspective (MLP) theory.
Introduction
The year 2011, sparked the world's reorientation of future energy policy in the wake of the tragic nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan, ever since global investment in renewable energy continues to grow within and across nations. Concerted efforts have been made at regional and global stages in favor of renewable energy transitions. At the heart of this campaign for energy, transitions lay, clean energy financing, promotion of policy cohesion, and data reporting at national levels (Osunmuyiwa & Kalfagianni, 2017). Governmental and supranational organization's renewable energy support policies have been a driving force behind the expanding shares of renewable energy (Network, 2017). However, job creation, energy accessibility, low prices, and energy security and power efficiency are the major economic spillovers derived from renewable energy, especially amongst rural areas (Ferroukhi et al., 2016). In Africa, several collaborations and initiatives have been instituted at the national, regional, and at the continental levels to promote renewable energy to engender socio-economic development (Karekezi & Kithyoma, 2002). Examples of such cooperation include the Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP), the Africa-EU Renewable Energy Cooperation Program (RECP), and Economic Community for West African States Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (ECREEE). Available statistics show that Africa's renewable energy investment increased from US$500 million in 2004 to US$9 billion in 2013 (REN21 Secretariat, 2014).
In light of the surging investments in the renewable energy sector across Africa, many countries within the western part of the continent continue to grapple with erratic energy supply and consistent blackouts, which have affected households and industrial activities. A more worrying situation is that, despite the vast energy resources at the region's disposal. Most countries in the sub-region derive a chunk of their power source from the traditional fossil fuels, which are considered inefficient and environmentally hostile, and hydro, which over the years has proven to be at the mercy of the climate. According to the IEA study (International Energy Agency, 2014), 630 million residents in the sub-Saharan African region lack access to energy, whereas over 750 million people depend on traditional biomass. The obvious questions are; what has been the impact of these collaborations and investments? What has been the response of West Africa relative to the global wave of renewable energy as the optimal future energy source? This study seeks to explore conditions and configurations that account for the variations in the adoption of renewable energy policies in West Africa. This study will adopt the UN's declaration of Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) (Wu & Wu, 2015) and ECREEE as a proxy for exploratory analysis. This study builds on the work of Osunmuyiwa & Kalfagianni, (2017) on energy transitions in Nigeria but rather depart from it in two ways; the current study will expand the scope of the analysis to cover all 15 West African States who have ratified ECREEE. This research will explore more diversified conditions seeking to achieve convergent Energy objectives. The second point of departure has to do with the number of conditions to be configured. This study will broaden the conditions under the three levels of socio-technical transitions theory; regimes, niches, and landscapes used by previous studies by investigating unique local contexts situations across the 15 States. To identify multiple causal pathways responsible for renewable energy transitions within the West African sub-region. Particularly, the comparative demographic advantage of natural resources and the influence of climate change on renewable technology adoption, which has received little attention in previous studies will be factored in the analysis.
Statement of the problem.
The works of Fouquet and Pearson (2012)and Grubler (2012) analyzed energy transitions in advanced countries and emerging economies of East and South-East Asia and have underlined the long-term nature of energy transitions. Studies on energy transitions have sought to explain the process and pathways responsible for changes in energy technologies, societal impact on innovations, and user relations (Osunmuyiwa & Kalfagianni, 2017). Even though West Africa is endowed with several renewable energy resources, the region is saddled with huge energy challenges such as high cost of electricity, erratic power supply, and low industrial activities. According to IEA (2014)), 630 million residents in the sub-Saharan African region lack access to energy, whereas over 750 million people depend on traditional biomass. West Africa remains one of the poorest regions in the world in terms of economic growth and human development (Ferroukhi et al., 2016). Meanwhile, the benefits derived from transitions to renewable energy relative to economic development is rife in the scientific literature. Available statistics suggest that investment and policy attempt to exploit clean energy sources in West Africa. A report by REN21 (2016) shows that Africa's renewable energy investment increased from US$500 million in 2004 to US$9 billion in 2013. Moreover, ECREEE was inaugurated in 2011 to supervise the exploitation of clean energy sources within the sub-region. Despite all these attempts, West African countries continue to grapple with energy challenges. To complement the efforts of ECREEE and other development partners in making the region energy efficient, research output on viable policies and pathways to sustainable energy sources cannot be underestimated. Accordingly, the main motivation of this study is to explore the possible pathways to the implementation of sustainable energy policies in West Africa to propel economic development.
The objective of the study
This study is based on the need for efficient and sustainable energy supply to engender industrial development and economic growth in West Africa.
Research Questions
To achieve the research objective, the following questions are proposed to be investigated during the study.
Why are countries within the same sub-region more responsive to the adoption and development of renewable energy technologies?
Which possible configurations of conditions lead to the renewable energy transition?
How different or similar are the conditions in ECOWAS countries?
What are the alternative pathways to sustainable energy in West Africa
Which conditions are sufficient for REPs adoption?
Significance of the study.
The research is based on the need for clean and sustainable energy sources, which will enhance industrialization and economic development in the West African sub-region. Even though earlier research has investigated conditions for renewable energy adoption in Nigeria (Osunmuyiwa & Kalfagianni, 2017). The study focused on only one African country whose economic and political setting differs in some aspects from her other West African neighbors. Moreover, this was a case study approach focused on indicators of local-level analysis. Accordingly, the scope of the study did not capture relevant demographic indicators such as the comparative advantage of natural resources and choice of renewable energy technologies as variables for transitions. However, the importance of these variables in explaining the transition trajectory at national levels cannot be underestimated. No study so far has analyzed the energy challenges and the renewable energy developments across the ECOWAS sub-region. This study, therefore, seeks to investigate the unique conditions across the West African states and explore the possible pathways to achieving sustainable energy for development in the region. To this effect, this study makes a case for the recognition of each country's array of policy instruments towards the adoption of renewable energy adoption. This study will contribute to the limited literature on the transformation of the energy sector in poor economies where investments are limited. Theoretically, the study contributes to the central conceptualization of 'equifinality' in QCA applications for policy analysis.
Literature Review.
The empirical and theoretical background of the study.
Governments are called upon to intervene in addressing environmental challenges such as pollution and inadequate investments in green technologies associated with market failures. Even though international pacts such as Kyoto Protocol and subsequently designated the Paris Protocol continues to instigate public debate, national policies remain the most effective accouterment for social and economic change (Nicolli & Vona, 2019). Policies that support renewable energy (REPs) inherently affects pollution production and technological change positively (Nicolli & Vona, 2019). Thus, REPs presents far-reaching benefits other than energy security, efficiency, and low energy pricing, which has dominated renewable energy discourse. Renewable energies represent a broad and diverse array of energy resources- biomass, hydro, geothermal, wind, solar, and ocean energy- as well as a range of conversion processes and applications such as combustion, thermal, mechanical, photovoltaic processes, etc. Renewable energy markets and policy frameworks have evolved rapidly in recent years. According to a report on the global status of renewables (Network, 2017), the main driving force for renewable energy policy adoption is the potential of renewables to create jobs. The report further notes that, globally, an estimated five million people work directly or indirectly with renewable energy firms. More and more governments around the world now acknowledge the economic fortunes of renewable energy along with energy efficiency as pivotal elements of any green economy strategy (REN21, 2018).
Drivers of renewable energy policies.
The prominent role of private and public interest in environmental policy outcome is conspicuously acknowledged by both theoretical and empirical studies across the extant literature, eg.,(Peltzman, 1976). Formal politico-economy models have generally inspired the seminal paper of Grossman & Helpman, (1994) in which multiple lobbies attempt to capture sector-specific policies by offering perspective bribes to politicians. Fundamentally, the model assumes that the extent to which the chosen level of environmental tax differs from the optimal Pigouvian tax depends on the lobbies' capacity to influence policy (Aidt, 1998). In turn, this difference is contingent on the premium the politician assigns to social welfare and citizen's preferences on the one hand and the lobbies' bribes on the other. Empirically, the weight assigned to brown lobby bribes has been approximated by the level of corruption, which has been shown to negatively affect the stringency of environmental regulation (Damania & Fredriksson, 2000; Fredriksson, Vollebergh, & Dijkgraaf, 2004; Zhang, Jin, Chevallier, & Shen, 2016). Although the negative effect of corruption on environmental policy is a consolidated result, using a sectoral measure of the brown lobby appears more appealing when the policy of interest is also sector-specific, as in the case of renewable energy policies
A growing strand of empirical literature has recorded the impact of lobbies on REPs. Small local producers, environmental NGOs, and potential entrants in renewable energy innovation technologies are seen to vouch for ambitious REPs (Nicolli & Vona, 2019). For example, Michaelowa (1998), observed the lobbying prowess of the German wind association to keep feed-in tariffs in Germany, while the European committee of Environmental Technological Suppliers Association (EUCESTA) acts as a lobbyist at the EU level (Canton, 2011; Canton, 2008). Similarly, small-scale utilities, often owned by municipalities and cooperatives, and producers of wind energy technology have played an important role in promoting renewable electricity policy in Denmark and Germany (Agnolucci, 2007; Lipp, 2007). Small producers support renewable energy policies that favor small- rather than large-scale generation, such as tax credits, feed-in tariffs, and investment support schemes (Lipp, 2007). Fredriksson et al. (2007) and List and Sturm (2006) show that green lobbies may have a substantial influence on the approval of ambitious environmental policies while Jacobsson and Lauber (2006) provide anecdotal evidence of the role played by both the green party and the parliamentary group of the social democratic party (SPD) in promoting the development of REPs in Germany. Finally, Aylett (2013) shows that civil society groups can speed up the adoption of new renewable energy systems by creating economic niches and catalyzing market transformation (Nicolli & Vona, 2019).
On the other hand, the opposition of energy utilities to REPs is documented both in single-country case studies (Jacobsson & Bergek, 2004; Nilsson et al., 2004 and Lauber & Mez, 2004), in some recent econometric analyses for the US states (Chandler, 2009), for OECD countries (Cadoret & Padovano, 2016) and EU countries (Jenner, Chan, Frankenberger, & Gabel, 2012). This opposition is primarily related to the intrinsic comparative advantage of large utilities in centralized energy production. Whereas the production of energy from renewable sources is decentralized in small to medium-sized units, the competencies of utilities are tied to large-scale plants using coal, nuclear power, or gas as the primary energy inputs. The high sunk costs (in terms of both tangible and intangible capital) of large-scale generation further exacerbate the technological lock-in of incumbents and fuel their political opposition to the distributed generation paradigm involving the diffuse use of RE. At the same time, however, the mere replacement of public utilities with private ones will not result in more political support for REPs as long as large private players are less willing to internalize the negative externalities generated by fossil-fuel plants.
REPs and Energy Efficiency in the Energy Sector
The concept of energy efficiency surfaced at the beginning of the 1970s in advanced economies as a prerequisite to sustainable economic development. Ever since, the improvement of energy efficiency through the adoption of REPs has become a crucial approach for many countries in a bid to boost economic growth as well as the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (Amoruso, Donevska, & Skomedal, 2018). Energy efficiency has been defined from several disciplinary perspectives. From the economic point of view, it is the ratio of a performance indicator or a product from a production process to the energy as a production factor. This definition employs three main indicators in measuring energy efficiency, namely; thermodynamic, physical, and monetary. These indicators assess energy efficiency overtime at the national level for peer comparison and energy policy analysis at the macro-level (Cole, McDonald, Wen, & Kramer, 2018). The positive correlation between renewable energy adoption and sustainable economic growth is widely acknowledged in extant literature. Hu and Wang (2006) assessed the energy efficiency of 29 administrative regions in China over the period 1995-2002. They found a U-shaped relationship between energy efficiency and per capita income in the sampled regions of China. Chien and Hu (2007) studied the effects of renewable energy on the technical efficiency of OECD and non-OECD countries between 2001and 2002 using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). They observed a positive relationship between the use of renewable energy and the economies' technical efficiency. Comparing the actual efficiency scores, they found that OECD countries were more technically efficient than non-OECD countries. This is because OECD countries have a higher share of geothermal, solar, tide, and wind fuel in renewable energy even though, non-OECD countries have a higher share of renewable energy in their total energy supply than OECD economies. Similarly, Vlahinić-Dizdarević and Šegota (2012) examined the energy efficiency trends in the EU member countries over the period 2000-2010. Applying the DEA model with constant return of scale and adopting capital, labor, and energy consumption as indicators and a product (GDP), the study revealed that countries with the higher share of quality fuels like electricity and natural gas are more efficient, whereas countries with the lower quality energy sources like wood and coal performed badly in energy efficiency. Zhang et al., (2016) employed the total factor production to evaluate energy efficiency in 23 developing economies between the periods 1980–2005. They empirically reported that Botswana, Mexico, and Panama are the best performers in terms of energy efficiency, while Kenya, Sri Lanka, Syria, and the Philippines perform the worst during the entire study period. Moreover, they found that seven countries showed little change in energy efficiency over time. Eleven countries experienced continuous decreases in energy efficiency and among five countries witnessing a continuous increase in total-factor energy efficiency, where China experienced the most rapid rise. This study argued that China's success in improving energy efficiency is due to the implementation of effective energy policies, such as improving the technological level and restructuring industries and energy products. Recently, Camioto et al., (2017) analyzed total factor energy efficiency in BRICS member countries. Using DEA Slack Based Model, Brazil registered the highest energy efficiency score with South Africa, China, India, and Russia following in respective order after the analysis. They argue that Brazil's position may have been engineered by the support mechanisms and policies for energy efficiency promoted by the Brazilian federal government in the past.
Energy challenges and Renewable Energy Trends in West Africa.
Energy is critical in economic and social transformation in developing countries. To propel sustainable economic growth to improve the lives of the teeming population, West African countries must provide sufficient energy to boost economic output while protecting the environment (Esso & Keho, 2016). To achieve this, research has shown that renewable energies are the strategic vector (Carlos et al., 2018). Realizing the economic fortunes inherent in REPs, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) launched the Regional Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (ECREEE) in 2010. "ECREEE is tasked to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency in the region by integrating various complementary project strategies, garnering political support, knowledge transfer, and encouraging investment" (Vilar ED, 2012). The energy situation in West Africa relative to renewable energy and human development is highly complex and diverse. Hence, one of the foremost initiatives is to understand the energy dynamics of the region. It is the considered position of this study that a full grasp of the regional and local dynamics of the energy sector will effectively inform REPs. Therefore a cursory analysis of various conditions and their configurations towards REPs is key to sustainable energy for economic growth in the region.
At present, the per capita energy usage in West Africa is very low (Vilar ED, 2012). It is a fact that West Africa is endowed with significant renewable energy sources. The problem is how to use these potentials to meet her electricity demand. Nigeria, for instance, has large quantities of oil and gas, yet access to electricity by her citizens has remained limited. Ley et al. (2014) found that more than 60% of Nigerians lack access to electricity. ECREEE report on "From Vision to Coordinated Action" (ECREEE, 2017) indicated that despite the vast energy resources available to the ECOWAS Region, access to electricity remains low, making energy insecurity very high.
The theoretical context of the study.
To analyze the adoption of REPs and associated technologies in West Africa, the multi-level socio-technical perspective (MPL) is the suitable theory to be used. MPL explains the dynamics between institutions, technology, norms, markets, and society. This model has been applied significantly in analyzing changes and stability in socio-technical systems (Geels, 2002). On energy transitions, MPL literature recognizes three levels of interactions. The experimentation or micro-level known as "niches," the meso level referred to as "regimes" and the macro-level considered as the "landscapes" (Markard, Raven, & Truffer, 2012).
Niches
Niches emerge to either compete or complement existing technologies. The presence of actors interested in the new technological innovations creates space and form a network for transition (Augenstein, 2015). Nonetheless, to alter the existing routines, niche experimentation must extend beyond its protected domain to interact and overcome prevalent production mode of operation and institutional conduct within the dominant energy infrastructure. The Studies of Bolton and Foxon (2015), and Gosens, Lu, and Coenen (2015) have shown that niches' effectiveness becomes more evident when there are tensions within regimes or in situations where there is pressure from external factors. Smith and Raven (2012) have argued that even when regimes are facing internal pressure, niches are only able to gain more traction in the transition process. However, they can effectively influence a broader diffusion of technologies when they operate with guided expectations (explicit heuristics and visions), social networks, and learning. Moreover, the success of niches in engineering takeover of regimes is contingent on whether developed technologies are designed to "fit and conform" with existing regime rules and structures or "stretch and transform" the entire system (Raven, Kern, Verhees, & Smith, 2016). To this end, there is evidence to show that niches experimentations are necessary conditions for transitions. These experiments seem insufficient for proper diffusion of technologies unless they are developed to conform or are protected to a pointed of maturity to take over the existing regime. Niches are therefore operationalized under MLP as pilot renewable energy technologies designed, developed, and implemented by institutes and other organizations at the national level. Thus, this study will consider niches based on renewable energy firms based on theoretical and empirical evidence indicating that these tend to come out with technologies to interact with end-users, thereby creating a process of social learning throughout the technology development. Based on the revision of scholarly findings above, this study put forward the proposition that:
Proposition 1. Renewable technology adoption is a configuration of niche experimentation and design through institutions of research and technology firms that enhance technological learning and development.
Regime.
The dominant institutional structures, interest groups, and actors that coordinate and maintain equilibrium within a system are referred to as regimes (Smink, Hekkert, & Negro, 2015).
Regimes in socio-technical transitions are centered on user patterns, market formation, technological trajectories, as well as social relations that shape societal, technological demands (Kern, 2012; McCauley & Stephens, 2012). Regime analysis within the MLP has often focused on interactions between actors and their systematic co-option of technologies or the creation of inertia via selective resistance to pressures from niches (Nææss & Vogel, 2012). Critical to regime interactions is the presence of structural relations and dependence among actors in determining the selection and co-option of technologies (Rosenbloom & Meadowcroft, 2014). This dependence is created by power relations among actors (Avelino & Rotmans, 2011; Geels, 2014), fostered by a coalition of "historic blocs," and relational networks within the regime. In this regard, dependence is fostered both by a mutual exercise of power (horizontal), and the exercise of power by one actor over another (vertical) (Avelino & Wittmayer, 2016).In this study, the role of structural dependence among actors within the regime and how this has shaped the adoption of renewable energy technologies among 15 ECOWAS countries are to be examined. In the Nigerian context, for instance, structural dependence is created and maintained based on fossil fuel rents. This, in turn, determines the ability of the regime to favor transition or not. Despite structural dependence within the regime, actors can change regime structures and introduce their technological preferences by increasing their competencies (Grin, Rotmans, & Schot, 2011; Rosenbloom & Meadowcroft, 2014). Drawing on previous and ongoing research on energy transitions (Geels, 2014; Hess, 2014), actors proposing change within the energy regime often use structural and institutional mechanisms in triggering transitions while reducing the regime's stronghold. Such mechanisms include;
the creation of renewable energy-based agencies,
the enactment of renewable energy policies, and
the promotion of renewable energy investments by members of the regime.
Typically, these mechanisms were adopted by actors in promoting Dutch energy transitions (mobility, gas and built environment) (Raven et al., 2016) and have been applied in cases of patent applications for renewable energy technologies in twenty-five countries in the global North (Johnstone, Haščič, & Popp, 2010). Based on the above, this study proposes that:
Proposition 2. Renewable energy technologies adoption is a product of actors aiming to trigger transitions while overcoming structural dependence within the regime. It is anticipated that countries with well-developed political and civil society actors are better able to initiate transitions and overcome dependence as compared to countries that lack these characteristics. In other words, such countries are more likely to favor energy agencies, policies, and investments that can sustain transitions overtime.
Landscape.
According to Geels (2011), landscapes are macro-level factors in transition processes. The landscape element of the MLP theory has often been characterized as a global dimension of transitions that transcends national boundaries. Such global factors include but are not limited to the emergence of social movements with regards to the use of common-pool resources, climate change, oil shocks, embargoes, or an increase in oil prices (e.g., the 1979 oil price embargo and the 2008 increase in crude-oil price). Landscapes at the local level can take the form of a decline in oil production and an increase in population or income, for instance. Evidence suggests that landscape characteristics, such as ecological (e.g., climate change) and social (e.g., population size and income) considerations have created new pressures and challenges which affect the management of infrastructures critical to urban growth and development (Hodson & Marvin, 2010). As such, there is a need to understand how these factors may affect existing infrastructures and influence the transition trajectory taken. In Africa, a growth in population and a significant rise in income translates to a higher demand for energy access. Accordingly, as more people have the purchasing power to increase their energy demand, more pressure is placed on the limitedly functional existing energy infrastructure, which may positively affect renewable energy transitions. This study seeks to examine the influence of three landscape characteristics: (i) the average income levels or per capita income of each West AfricaStatete, (ii) demographic comparative advantage of renewable resources of eacStatete, and (iii) the population of each State which determines the demand for energy use. By examining these indicators, it is the hope to understand how they affect transitions and in what direction. Based on the above, this study proposes that:
Proposition 3. Renewable energy adoption is more likely to occur in countries with a high population and income about countries with minimal of these landscape characteristics.
Proposition 4. Renewable technology adoption and diffusion is likely to be influenced by natural resources (strong wind, biomass, sunlight, etc.) present within the individual West African country.
To this end, the study proposes to adapt and modify the theoretical model below for the levels of comparative analysis.
Proposed Conceptual design
Figure 1: Transition trajectories within a multi-level socio-technical system adapted from (Osunmuyiwa & Kalfagianni, 2017) and modified to fit this study.
Methodology
Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA)
To examine the role of different factors in outcomes, qualitative comparative analysis has been predominantly used by researchers (e.g., Ragin, 2008; Benoit Rihoux & Ragin, 2007; Benoît Rihoux, Ragin, Rihoux, & Meur, 2012). This study will adopt QCA (Ragin, 2008) to analyze variations in REPs adoption across ECOWAS countries. QCA affords the identification of multiple and conjectural causes of some event when comparing a relatively small number of cases (Ragin, 2008). Cress and Snow (2000) argued that this method is not a substitute for quantitative techniques like regression due to a small number of observations (in this study, 15 observations). Rather, unlike quantitative approaches, QCA is a conjectural approach that examines the various ways by which conditions interact with one another to yield to a particular outcome. Thus, QCA is a theory-driven approach to empirical observations. Under QCA methodology, dependent variables are referred to as "outcomes," whereas independent variables are known as "conditions" (Wagemann & Schneider, 2010).
In this study, fuzzy set QCA (fs/QCA) will be employed to investigate causal complexities yielding the same outcomes (adoption of renewable energy policies and technologies in West Africa). The concepts of Necessity and Sufficiency will be adopted in examining causation. The term 'necessity' describes a cause that must be present for certain outcomes to emerge. Sufficient causations, on the other hand, can themselves produce certain outcomes (Cress & Snow, 2000; Ragin, 2008)
Data Sources.
Data for this study will be pooled from national reports, policies, and transnational records on renewable energy. Journal articles on the study topic will be reviewed for relevant data for analysis. Focus interviews will be conducted to complement secondary data for robust and verifiable findings.
Consistency and Coverage Test.
To ensure the robustness of qualitative analysis, output, consistency, and coverage test has been proposed by Rihoux and Grimm (2006), further to validate the research model. Consistency measures the degree to which a subset relation has been approximated, whereas the second measure of coverage assesses the empirical relevance of a consistent subset. Rihoux and Grimm (2006) argue that set-theoretic coverage can be partitioned in a manner somewhat analogous to the partitioning of explained variation in multiple regression analysis. This study will adopt Lieberson and Ragin's (2001) approach to demonstrate the robustness of the research findings.
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